| 8th June 2021 |
| Flight statistics in May: recovery of air traffic in Ukrainian airspace stabilizing |
A total of 16,986 flights were performed in Ukrainian airspace in May 2021, which is 43.4% less compared to 2019. The absolute value of the number of flights provided with air navigation services is growing from month to month, while the dynamics of recovery is the same as in April.
Flights are increasing due to the beginning of summer navigation, the active tourist season, as well as the opening of borders of more and more countries.
The suspension of air service with the Republic of Belarus has not significantly affected the May indicators. However, it may lead to a slowdown in volume growth in coming months.
Comparing the air traffic trends in the previous month with last year’s May, a period of complete lockdown of passenger flights, would give an increase of 424.7%, although the objective indicators compared to pre-crisis May 2019 show a drop of 43.4%.
In May 2021, Ukrainian airlines performed 6,810 flights (down 33.2% compared to May 2019), and foreign airlines performed 1,076 flights (down 48.6%).
The May flight breakdown is as follows: 2,271 domestic flights (down 20.5% compared to the same period in 2019), 8,961 international flights (-39.6%), and 5,754 transit flights (-53.3%).
According to the updated EUROCONTROL forecast, the recovery of air traffic in the European airspace in 2021 is based on three scenarios. The optimistic scenario assumes that 79% of the pre-crisis level may be achieved by year-end, while the baseline scenario sees traffic levels rising to 70% of 2019 levels. The pessimistic scenario envisages that the situation will hardly change till December 2021, which allows forecasting only 50% of the 2019 traffic volume.
Andrii Yarmak, head of UkSATSE: “The updated EUROCONTROL forecast contains improved expectations regarding the progress in restoring flying intensity by the end of 2021, when compared to previous estimates. It is obvious that there is a great pent-up demand for air travel in the market of Europe, and Ukraine in particular. The fact that at least seven EU countries have already started issuing Digital COVID Certificates also brings the possibility of opening Europe’s borders to vaccinated foreigners closer. Ukrainians and Ukrainian airlines expect the easing of current restrictions for flights to European countries, which should give a significant boost to the recovery of domestic aviation and passenger numbers at Ukrainian airports”.
Here is the trend in the number of flights in the Ukrainian airspace in 2021: April – 13,661 flights, March – 12,160 flights, February – 8,758 flights, and January – 9,842 flights.
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| Source: UkSATSE |
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